BiscottiGelato

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    果條蛋散偏激左啦... 我留翻俾其他人回啦。

我仲有一個故事想分享。

好幾年前岩岩 ...
大C姐 發表於 2010-7-16 22:01

Don't really understand why you think he is a 蛋散 and is 偏激. Not to mention that he have a very good case, with rational (instead of emotional) analysis in supporting his argument, not just based on some individual example or the past trend. Besides, he is a finance professor, your credential, miss?

And your story about 2 couples making 80k having 2 houses... is really just an individual case. How about HK first time home buyers that suicided because of negative equities in the house back during SARS? I know a lot of people (esp my parent's generation) making truck loads from real estates. There are also people that made boat loads trading the stock market. Individual cases definitely does not reflect the average across the world, nationality and time-scale. Past performance is not a very good indicator of future performance either.

快樂牛郎

I think it should be, if you are trading, you should expect to lose it all.

I don't think "expect" is the right word.  It should be like, you will still survive even if you lose it all, which is the worst case scenario.  Your "expectation" should be a weighted average of all outcomes which is definitely > 0.  That's another reason why human capital (yourself) is the biggest investment because as long as you still produce positive cashflow (earnings), you will do fine even if you lose all your savings.

By the way, I strongly believe that the long term growth trend is broken in the US equity market.  Trading swings is probably the only way to profit in the next 3-5 years.

快樂牛郎

I know a lot of people (esp my parent's generation) making truck loads from real estates. There are also people that made boat loads trading the stock market.

That's why there's a significant hindsight/survival bias in this argument.  From the mid 80s to late 90s, equities outperformed real estate by at least 500%.  But most of the people here did not invest in equities back then, so we don't know how many people got rich by buying stocks.  The housing market only took off in the last 5-8 years in Vancouver, so many people now more than ever firmly believe in the benefits of owning a property.

BiscottiGelato

我估你好細個囉。你都未眼巴巴經歷過咩係生老病死...

我當然明你要invest in yourself﹐但係同買唔 ...
大C姐 發表於 2010-7-16 22:37

A full time B School in a half-good school in the states or Europe would easily cost double of what a 20% downpayment would take... Law School or Med School will take substantially more. I don't see how investing in yourself (if in the form of education at least) would not interfere with investing in assets like a house, which not only have high opportunity cost but also usually ties you down at a certain geographical location, especially when we are saying that houses is only a moderately reasonable option if you live in it yourself.

BiscottiGelato

回復  快樂牛郎


    咁咩analysis都係睇past trend架啦。你又難保next 30 年啲樓一定會跌？不過，我明嘅 ...
fibbi 發表於 2010-7-16 22:18

I think the problem with buying a place in Vancouver is not return, it's risk. Valuation is plainly inflated. Analysis that base only on past performance is some of the worst analysis. Learn about investment analysis and you'd realize is more than just gambling based on past trend or other technical indicators.

BiscottiGelato

This really depends on an individual basis so I am glad you mentioned that you personally think it ...
biggie 發表於 2010-7-16 19:46

I always think that my parents would like if I stay around the house at least a little bit of the time. How boring is it if it's just the two of them? I always feel kind of bad if I just move out and abandon them now that i can afford to move out/buy a house, etc. So it's a win-win. There's some sacrifices in my privacy, but I can afford that short coming.

Of course, one should pay some allowance/help with some expense around the house, so it's not free leaching. But for surely, the total expense between parents + u living under the same roof, vs your parents under one roof + you under another roof, should definitely be less and thus more economical overall.

Catpiano

Ha ha .. BG ..  rather then --> " 我仲有一個故事想分享 ....  "  big C sister is totally out of gas ..

I mean, still fun to see where he copy and paste (or whatever) those "story" ....  you and me and any average joe can make up those common stories too ..

Even happy cow loves to step people here and there .. but at least, he made some good and logic points here ....  

Of course, I didn't read all detail la..  I am just a normal father .. not much time to ..  lol

sheep

回復  Catpiano


    果條蛋散偏激左啦... 我留翻俾其他人回啦。


大C姐 發表於 2010-7-16 22:01

就憑你呢句
就自你無料扮代表

大C姐

Happy Cow said IF you can fix at 4%, then mortgage is a good option. Obviously as you guys pointed ...
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010-7-17 01:25

    我覺得invest in yourself係岩﹐我自己都讀唔少書﹐我而家都仲有進修﹐我覺得呢個係絕對岩。我唔會叫人唔讀書就去炒樓。

但係﹐in the long run﹐人係要生活。你可以不停去讀書﹐但係學海無崖﹐你讀完三個degree﹐兩個master﹐四個專業資格之後﹐你未必一定有同等回報。同埋工作講到尾都係講經驗﹐你讀讀埋埋一推銜頭真係未必有用。所以到某一個位﹐人點都要諗人生最基本生活﹐去預備有朝一日無能力生產之後點算。我無話你投資你所有錢落去棟樓﹐你可以買平D囉(我一直叫人唔好間硬嚟)﹐之後有多餘錢咪去讀書﹐無問題啵。

當然﹐讀書可以係為興趣﹐但係呢個已經唔係investment角度﹐興趣係bonus/ luxury唔洗講回報。

fibbi

回復 235# BiscottiGelato


我都有見過vancouver樓市低迷嘅時候，成十年八年，一直都喺谷底位置。唔係靜係睇到升嘅時候。乜嘢投資都可以係risky，唔單止買樓。如果自住，又唔係諗住搬嚟搬去嘅話，我都認為買好過租。投資嘅話，可以有好多其他更好選擇。