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後果自負... what does this mean?? Starting another world war because of the island??

Can't someone just blow the island up so no one will ever fight for it? Or... just mark a line in between and place soldiers there like N/S Korea.

Philip

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日本雖然放人﹐但原因其實未明﹐可能係中國既經濟制裁威脅湊效﹐但也可能是美日在聯合國大會時達成了某些協議﹐例如美國支持日本在釣魚台駐軍。
所以日本拘留船長已無意義﹐放人亦可用作緩兵之計來部署在釣魚台駐軍。
大陸如果大意﹐讓日本在釣魚島駐了軍隊﹐就會真正失去釣魚台主權。
soli 發表於 2010-9-23 22:37

同意 Soli前半部份所講嘅估計。At this point 可以有太多原因令日本放人,但中短期內日本想要響釣魚台駐軍卻唔係一個可行嘅方案。話到尾其實日本最重視嘅其實只不過係東海一帶嘅油氣資源而並非釣魚台本身,而中共所着重嘅就更加只係東海油氣田各處嘅盡早開發同開採。日本假若真係夠薑去釣魚台駐軍嘅話,咁無疑係逼咗中共入死角,就好似今次扣押完再扣押個船長一樣,到時無論係軍事又好、外交又好、經濟又好,中共侷住都一定會做啲野。以日本響可見嘅未來裡面,佢都承受唔起中國大陸嘅呢啲打擊。

當然,以上所講嘅並唔代表中共可以對釣魚台嘅事掉以輕心。因為中國打陸一旦真係制裁日本嘅話,佢自身都要傷返唔少(雖然日本所受嘅打擊會更大)。

-力

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同意 Soli前半部份所講嘅估計。At this point 可以有太多原因令日本放人,但中短期內日本想要響釣魚台駐軍 ...
Lik 發表於 2010-9-23 23:19

You moron~~

Is Taiwan ROC going to send warships to Diaoyu Islands?
Remember that Diaoyu Islands is supposed to be under Taiwan province.

This time, it shows only the PRC can deal with Japan.

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後果自負... what does this mean?? Starting another world war because of the island??

Can't someone just blow the island up so no one will ever fight for it? Or... just mark a line in between and place soldiers there like N/S Korea.
pkphilip 發表於 2010-9-23 23:08

Philip,

As I was saying in another thread, saying stuff like 後果自負 is an extremely common tactic that CPC employs. It is essentially a scare tactic that tries to intimidate the opponent into interpreting the threat as the worse possible outcome, and therefore surrenders before any real action is taken. Sometimes it can be completely useless if the opponent can see through the bluff. At other times, the threat could be quite real. It all depends on the situation at hand, and in this case, I tend to believe that there is some teeth behind the CPC's threats.

The end of the dispute will depend on how soon the oil and gas reserves in the region are developed / depleted, or how soon a co-development agreement is hammered out. The reserves spans the economic regions of both China and Japan, and is strongly believed to be highly connected. China has already started a number of drilling stations in the undisputed sections of the region, and is pumping out the oil and gas resources. But since the reserves in the region are essentially interconnected beneath the ocean floor, the drawing out of resources from the Chinese side means the reserves in the Japanese side will get depleted as well. Since the Mainland already has a huge start on the development of oil/gas wells, they are really in no hurry to let the Japanese join in on the project and take a cut out of the profits. In fact, they probably just prefer to maintain the status quo because it means they can continue to extract the oil and gas reserves -- including what should have/would have been Japan's portion -- all for themselves.

-Lik

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其實我反而希望日本在美國支持下駐兵釣魚台﹐這樣表面上美國能繼續圍堵中國﹐日本成功擴張勢力﹐但其實卻會讓中台同仇敵慨﹐加速和解同聯合﹐一致對外。
o甘就會應左推背圖既預言~ lol

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其實我反而希望日本在美國支持下駐兵釣魚台﹐這樣表面上美國能繼續圍堵中國﹐日本成功擴張勢力﹐但其實卻會 ...
soli 發表於 2010-9-24 01:07


Taiwan should send warships to Diaoyu Islands first.
The reason is very simple. Both Japan and Taiwan has defensive agreements with the US. In this case, the US will be forced to stay neutral.
The PRC can then send in their navy to wipe out the Japanese.

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The PRC can then send in their navy to wipe out the Japanese.
peter236 發表於 2010-9-24 02:22

叫中共派北洋艦隊過去釣魚台同日本揪過?真係一個無敵嘅建議~

-力

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本帖最後由 peter236 於 2010-9-24 10:51 編輯
叫中共派北洋艦隊過去釣魚台同日本揪過?真係一個無敵嘅建議~

-力
Lik 發表於 2010-9-24 09:05


You moron~~
Taiwan should send warships to Diaoyu Islands first, in order to avoid giving the US an excuse to interfere. The reason is very simple. Both Japan and Taiwan have defensive agreements with the US. In this case, the US will be forced to stay on the sidelines.
The PRC can then send in their navy to wipe out the Japanese.

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