置業率愈高 失業率愈高 西班牙, 意大利, 瑞士

lo_pak

【明報專訊】王震宇是個不一樣的分析員，除了分析樓市及地產股，他更愛評論政策。他反對復建居屋的立場廣為人知，原來他的理論基礎是，一個地方愈多置業優惠，失業率便愈高。「我看過一些統計，一個國家的置業率與失業率原來成正比。在意大利、西班牙，置業率有七八成，失業率就超過10％。反而瑞士、德國，置業率只有四成多，失業率只有5％、6％。這是因為大家置了業，就不願搬，勞動力流動性低，失業率便高。」

置業後 勞動人口不願搬

他反對居屋，是因為他反對政府推優惠催谷市民置業。「政府愈插手，樓市波動會愈大，所有資助置業的政策，都是Pro-cyclical的（順周期，即好市時刺激樓價升，淡市時刺激樓價跌）。」所以他覺得港府推物業利息免稅額，亦是不合理地推動港人置業。「為何市民付租金不能有免稅額？」

政府津貼買樓 令樓市更波動

雖然他反對復建居屋，但他很贊成加按揭成數。「我希望政府能長期維持現在按揭五六成的政策，不要在市跌時又放鬆。只有減低買樓的槓桿，才能減少短炒，令樓價波幅真的與經濟增長看齊。」

「這樣香港人才不再想著怎樣炒樓賺大錢，反而學下德國人及瑞士人，多點去想怎樣做些高增值的東西。」

lo_pak

Open for discussion...

Although this fellow has some points with data backup, I feel like he has improperly interpreting his data...

IMO, there's an optimal point in between instead of saying one way or another...

Lik

條友講咁多野又有Q用咩？中國人就係鍾意有塊瓦遮頭，而政府嘅責任就係去服務人民、為人民提供佢地想要嘅服務，而唔係走去官商勾結，有錢就只係益晒啲大地產商。你個特區政府又唔係無錢、無能力去復建居屋，點解人民要求嘅你都全部唔俾？

-力

lo_pak

回復 3# Lik

So, in short, you have assumed:

1) Market is not fair;
2) Market is at an irrational stage;
3) Consumer has preference;

Correct me if I've mistakenly interpret your meaning.

peter236

條友講咁多野又有Q用咩？中國人就係鍾意有塊瓦遮頭，而政府嘅責任就係去服務人民、為人民提供佢地想要嘅服 ...
Lik 發表於 2011-7-4 12:14

You should ask Vancouver government to build more 居屋 so that big Canadian developers cannot control downtown real estate.

peter236

回復  Lik

So, in short, you have assumed:

1) Market is not fair;
2) Market is at an irrational st ...
lo_pak 發表於 2011-7-4 12:19

Public lands are sold by HK government through auction process.
Private lands are sold by their respective owners.

Lik

I wasn't hinting any of those things you wrote in my previous post, but I won't disagree with them either.

In particular, #2 is true because of all the hot money that is rushing down from the Great Motherland. Armed with as much $$$ as they do, those Great Chinese buyers really don't give a damn about how much they are paying for their flats. Moreover, because they have the $$, they are not interested in renting the unit out to locals either, so even though those units have been sold, they do nothing to ease the upward pressure on rent. The end result of this is that once again, the poor folks in HK are the ones that suffers.

-Lik

lo_pak

回復 6# peter236

?? What's your assumptions?

Lik

You should ask Vancouver government to build more 居屋 so that big Canadian developers cannot control downtown real estate.
peter236 發表於 2011-7-4 12:58

When you don't know shxt, you should really just shut the fxxk up.

Major Canadian cities have a problem with low-cost social housing. But in Vancouver, the local and provincial governments are taking steps to introduce these unit into the market.

For the moment, people are adjusting / adapting to the rising home prices by either moving further away, or moving into smaller condo / apartment / townhouse units. But let's not forget why Canadians -- esp us in Vancouver -- are facing sky high real estate prices: it's all because of the hot money that is pouring in from your Great Motherland.

-Lik

peter236

回復  peter236

?? What's your assumptions?
lo_pak 發表於 2011-7-4 13:02

If HK government builds more 居屋, near the peak of the market cycle, it would be tricky.
If the markets turns down, the same people who ask for more 居屋, will blame the HK government for increasing supply. Remember 85,000 units back in 1997 market peak before the Asian fianancial crisis?