快樂牛郎

How come ..  at the end of the day ..

US $$ is more and more soften?
Catpiano 發表於 2010/10/6 10:16

But crude keeps climbing
so why do you care?

BiscottiGelato

OK. no demand for stock, but QE expectations... USD down AND stock down then? GOLD, CRUDE and Stock are king?

快樂牛郎

OK. no demand for stock, but QE expectations... USD down AND stock down then? GOLD, CRUDE and Stock  ...
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010/10/6 11:09

Expectations are somewhat priced in.  You can't have USD keep tanking 1% every day until Nov 4th.  When Euro was trading at 1.2, everything was doom and gloom. Now it's back at 1.39.  I am pretty much always a contrarian.

快樂牛郎

With the USD so low, there are two situations that can happen.

1) The Fed holds off to avoid pushing USD off the cliff
2) The Fed does what they want

But in case 2), USD might not go down a lot, since we saw that JPY actually went up after Japan announced QE.  Buy the rumor, sell the news is still the golden rule.

BiscottiGelato

Sounds like reasonable analysis. Not going to be on significant downward pressure on stock either tho because of QE expectations. Unless there are other forces at play (earnings much below expectation, etc)...

快樂牛郎

Sounds like reasonable analysis. Not going to be on significant downward pressure on stock either th ...
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010/10/6 15:02

Based on pre-announcements, earnings will be bad and unemployement will remain high. I actually think that the MMs may want to tank the market in the next 3 weeks to make sure that Fed will act on Nov 4th.  Panic will ensue if Dow drops back to 10,000.