標題: Japan Economy Surpassed by China as GDP Is Less Than Estimated [打印本頁] 作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-8-15 18:25 標題: Japan Economy Surpassed by China as GDP Is Less Than Estimated
By Keiko Ujikane
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy grew at less than a fifth of the pace economists estimated last quarter, pushing it into third place behind the U.S. and China and adding to evidence the global recovery is faltering.
Stocks fell, led by exporters whose profits are under threat from the yen’s advance to a 15-year high against the dollar. The economic slowdown may put pressure on the Bank of Japan to expand monetary stimulus as the nation’s record public debt constrains the government’s ability to do so.
“This was a very weak report,” said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “With exports slowing and domestic demand still weak, the economy will be in a tough situation.”
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.4 percent to 9,121.82 at 10:51 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for the lowest close since November. The yen climbed to 85.82 per dollar at from 85.95 before the report. It reached 84.73 yen on Aug. 11, the strongest level since July 1995.
Export growth slowed and consumer spending stalled, today’s report showed. The expansion was weaker than all economists estimated, with their predictions ranging from 0.6 percent to 3.4 percent.
Surpassed by China
Japan’s economic output for the second quarter totaled $1.288 trillion, less than China’s $1.337 trillion, Keisuke Tsumura, a parliamentary secretary at the Cabinet Office, told reporters in Tokyo today. Tsumura, who was citing the government department’s own calculations, said Japan remained bigger in the first half of 2010.
National Strategy Minister Satoshi Arai said at a press conference the GDP report wasn’t an indication of the economy falling into a lull and the government isn’t planning any stimulus packages now. He said politicians need to work with the central bank to combat the stronger yen.
Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he is concerned about the rising yen, Kyodo News reported on Aug. 14. Japan’s currency may climb to a record, Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s top currency official, said yesterday on the Fuji television network.
Yen Warning
The strengthening currency prompted Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda to say last week “excessive” moves can hurt the economy. He pledged to work with Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, who said in a statement the bank is closely watching “substantial” movements in foreign-exchange and stock markets. The BOJ kept policy unchanged last week.
“If the Japanese economy is forced to create a production structure based on 85 yen to the dollar, that would be disastrous,” as the nation wouldn’t earn enough from exports to pay for commodities from overseas, Honda Motor Co. Chief Financial Officer Yoichi Hojo said on Aug. 5.
Net exports, or shipments minus imports, added 0.3 percentage point to growth last quarter, slowing from a revised 0.6 point in the first three months of 2010.
Spending by Japanese consumers, which account for about 60 percent of the economy, was unchanged, compared with the previous quarter’s revised 0.5 percent gain, today’s report showed. The slowdown indicates incentives to buy energy- efficient cars and electronics are waning.
Business spending gained 0.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with 0.6 percent in the first three months.
BOJ on Hold
“The impact of the stronger yen will materialize more in the third quarter by pushing down export volumes and corporate profits,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “Government pressure on the BOJ for further monetary easing will likely increase in the coming months.”
The BOJ introduced a fixed-rate lending facility last December after the yen surged and stocks plunged. The central bank has kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.1 percent since lowering it in December 2008.
The slowdown in the second quarter contrasts with reports from Japan’s biggest companies that signaled a better earnings outlook, even as the yen surges. Toyota, Honda, Sony Corp. and Panasonic Corp. were among firms that raised profit forecasts over the past month.
A group of lawmakers from the ruling Democratic Party of Japan last week urged Prime Minister Kan to consider intervening in the currency market for the first time since 2004 to arrest the yen’s rally. They also called for monetary easing from the central bank.
Without adjusting for price changes, Japan shrank a nominal 0.9 percent from the previous quarter, the first contraction in three quarters, today’s report showed. Price declines showed signs of easing, with the GDP deflator falling 1.8 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, narrowing from a 2.8 percent drop in the previous quarter.
