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標題: 置業率愈高失業率愈高 [打印本頁]

作者: lo_pak 時間: 2011-7-4 12:02 標題: 置業率愈高失業率愈高

【明報專訊】王震宇是個不一樣的分析員，除了分析樓市及地產股，他更愛評論政策。他反對復建居屋的立場廣為人知，原來他的理論基礎是，一個地方愈多置業優惠，失業率便愈高。「我看過一些統計，一個國家的置業率與失業率原來成正比。在意大利、西班牙，置業率有七八成，失業率就超過10％。反而瑞士、德國，置業率只有四成多，失業率只有5％、6％。這是因為大家置了業，就不願搬，勞動力流動性低，失業率便高。」

置業後勞動人口不願搬

他反對居屋，是因為他反對政府推優惠催谷市民置業。「政府愈插手，樓市波動會愈大，所有資助置業的政策，都是Pro-cyclical的（順周期，即好市時刺激樓價升，淡市時刺激樓價跌）。」所以他覺得港府推物業利息免稅額，亦是不合理地推動港人置業。「為何市民付租金不能有免稅額？」

政府津貼買樓令樓市更波動

雖然他反對復建居屋，但他很贊成加按揭成數。「我希望政府能長期維持現在按揭五六成的政策，不要在市跌時又放鬆。只有減低買樓的槓桿，才能減少短炒，令樓價波幅真的與經濟增長看齊。」

「這樣香港人才不再想著怎樣炒樓賺大錢，反而學下德國人及瑞士人，多點去想怎樣做些高增值的東西。」

作者: lo_pak 時間: 2011-7-4 12:03

本帖最後由 lo_pak 於 2011-7-4 12:08 編輯

Open for discussion...

Although this fellow has some points with data backup, I feel like he has improperly interpreting his data...

IMO, there's an optimal point in between instead of saying one way or another...

作者: Lik 時間: 2011-7-4 12:14

條友講咁多野又有Q用咩？中國人就係鍾意有塊瓦遮頭，而政府嘅責任就係去服務人民、為人民提供佢地想要嘅服務，而唔係走去官商勾結，有錢就只係益晒啲大地產商。你個特區政府又唔係無錢、無能力去復建居屋，點解人民要求嘅你都全部唔俾？

-力

作者: lo_pak 時間: 2011-7-4 12:19

回復 3# Lik

So, in short, you have assumed:

1) Market is not fair;
2) Market is at an irrational stage;
3) Consumer has preference;

Correct me if I've mistakenly interpret your meaning.

作者: peter236 時間: 2011-7-4 12:58

本帖最後由 peter236 於 2011-7-4 13:01 編輯

條友講咁多野又有Q用咩？中國人就係鍾意有塊瓦遮頭，而政府嘅責任就係去服務人民、為人民提供佢地想要嘅服 ...
Lik 發表於 2011-7-4 12:14

You should ask Vancouver government to build more 居屋 so that big Canadian developers cannot control downtown real estate.

作者: peter236 時間: 2011-7-4 13:00

回復 Lik

So, in short, you have assumed:

1) Market is not fair;
2) Market is at an irrational st ...
lo_pak 發表於 2011-7-4 12:19

Public lands are sold by HK government through auction process.
Private lands are sold by their respective owners.

作者: Lik 時間: 2011-7-4 13:02

I wasn't hinting any of those things you wrote in my previous post, but I won't disagree with them either.

In particular, #2 is true because of all the hot money that is rushing down from the Great Motherland. Armed with as much $$$ as they do, those Great Chinese buyers really don't give a damn about how much they are paying for their flats. Moreover, because they have the $$, they are not interested in renting the unit out to locals either, so even though those units have been sold, they do nothing to ease the upward pressure on rent. The end result of this is that once again, the poor folks in HK are the ones that suffers.

-Lik

作者: lo_pak 時間: 2011-7-4 13:02

回復 6# peter236

?? What's your assumptions?

作者: Lik 時間: 2011-7-4 13:06

You should ask Vancouver government to build more 居屋 so that big Canadian developers cannot control downtown real estate.
peter236 發表於 2011-7-4 12:58

When you don't know shxt, you should really just shut the fxxk up.

Major Canadian cities have a problem with low-cost social housing. But in Vancouver, the local and provincial governments are taking steps to introduce these unit into the market.

For the moment, people are adjusting / adapting to the rising home prices by either moving further away, or moving into smaller condo / apartment / townhouse units. But let's not forget why Canadians -- esp us in Vancouver -- are facing sky high real estate prices: it's all because of the hot money that is pouring in from your Great Motherland.

-Lik

作者: peter236 時間: 2011-7-4 13:06

回復 peter236

?? What's your assumptions?
lo_pak 發表於 2011-7-4 13:02

If HK government builds more 居屋, near the peak of the market cycle, it would be tricky.
If the markets turns down, the same people who ask for more 居屋, will blame the HK government for increasing supply. Remember 85,000 units back in 1997 market peak before the Asian fianancial crisis?

作者: lo_pak 時間: 2011-7-4 13:14

本帖最後由 lo_pak 於 2011-7-4 13:19 編輯

回復 10# peter236

So do you mean that HK government reacts too sluggish to the market?

作者: lo_pak 時間: 2011-7-4 13:22

回復 7# Lik

If the hot monies last in the market for a while, what can HK government do to help the general public?

作者: peter236 時間: 2011-7-4 13:24

本帖最後由 peter236 於 2011-7-4 13:29 編輯

When you don't know shxt, you should really just shut the fxxk up.

Major Canadian cities have a pr ...
Lik 發表於 2011-7-4 13:06

Mr Lik when you first immigrated to Canada, your hot money also drove up real estate prices.

There are 250,000 immigrants to Canada, it is not fair to blame on the Chinese immigrants.

Mr Lik, please read and learn:

Chinese-Canadians and immigrants, not investors from China, largely driving market, experts say

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/busi ... .html#ixzz1RAsLXuDF

作者: peter236 時間: 2011-7-4 13:31

本帖最後由 peter236 於 2011-7-4 13:32 編輯

Chinese-Canadians and immigrants, not investors from China, largely driving market, experts say

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/busi ... .html#ixzz1RAsnCF4v

By Brian Morton, Vancouver Sun June 11, 2011

A growing belief that Metro Vancouver's hot housing market is being driven by Asian investment, primarily from mainland China, is a misconception, according to experts in the real estate field.

In fact, they say, evidence suggests buyers are mainly Canadian citizens, immigrants or new residents in Canada -many with strong links to mainland China and many residing and working in China while their families establish roots in B.C.

Most purchases are also being made as long-term holdings - in some cases for children attending local universities -with little of the quick "flipping" prevalent in previous hot markets.

"From what we've seen from most of the major launches, it's a different buying habit than previous runs on the market," Jennifer Podmore, real estate advisory leader for accounting giant Deloite, said in an interview Friday. "Generally, we're not seeing the investor as the main drivers of the market. There are certainly a lot more Asian purchasers, but not Asian investors coming to purchase a condo and then leaving.

"Most [buyers] have strong ties to Vancouver, meaning they're Canadians, immigrants or live here," added Podmore.

Daryl Simpson, Bosa Properties' vice-president of sales and marketing, agreed, citing their 202-unit Sovereign tower in Metrotown that recently sold out in one day, largely to ethnic Chinese buyers.

However, it's incorrect to identify the buyers as mainland Chinese, he said, because most came from other parts of Metro Vancouver. Some may have connections with mainland China, but no more than "half a dozen buyers" had addresses outside Canada.

In 2010 B.C. received about 47 per cent of Canada's investor-class immigrants, who must show a net worth of at least $1.6 million and are required to make an $800,000 investment in Canada, Podmore added.

While Chinese immigrants to B.C. represented about 19 per cent of the total immigration, Chinese and Taiwanese investor-class immigrants represented 79 per cent of the investor category.

Podmore's and Simpson's comments follow a surge in investment, largely by ethnic Asian buyers with links to mainland China, that's branching out from Richmond and Vancouver's west side as buyers look to other communities.

Several condominium towers in Burnaby, including Sovereign, sold out quickly in recent weeks, mainly to Asian buyers.

"If you see the type of demand that we've seen on the west side of Vancouver and Richmond spread elsewhere, it will push up prices, but it's unlikely to have the same dramatic effect on prices because there's much more of a supply of units elsewhere," Tsur Somerville, director of the centre for urban economics and real estate at Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C., said, adding that it's hard to conclude mainland Chinese buyers are behind the sales.

Robert Dominick, vice-president of sales and acquisitions for WestStone Properties, said Asian buyers are fuelling sales at his 393-unit Surrey City Centre highrise, Ultra.

"We opened the door for [our most recent] sales two weeks ago. We didn't advertise and simply through phone calls to Asian realtors in our first week we generated 23 sales."

Dominick said some buyers showed up on buying trips organized by Chinese-based tour operators, but that most aren't interested in "flipping."

He said many buyers involve China-based husbands with family in Metro Vancouver, while some want a condo for their children attending the nearby Simon Fraser University campus.

Polygon Homes president Neil Chrystal said it's difficult to say how many buyers are mainland Chinese investors, adding that "we see a lot of people speaking Mandarin, which is an indication." He noted that south Surrey, north Delta and West Vancouver are becoming more popular with Asian buyers.

Chrystal said that while their Chancellor highrise and two other Burnaby towers experienced lineups of predominantly Asian buyers, "a lot of the people were locals looking to downsize."

Meanwhile, a recent Landcor Data Corp. report said many of today's Chinese immigrants arrive "with fortunes intact, especially in the Lower Mainland, eagerly buying their own bits of the good life and helping buoy up real estate prices."

The report looked at luxury home sales in Richmond and Vancouver, matching new owners' Chinese surnames to see how many purchasers were Chinese, with 74 per cent fitting the criteria in 2010.

A recent China Daily report said Chinese home buyers have become the second-largest group of international buyers of U.S. homes -after Canadians.

[email protected]
© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

作者: Lik 時間: 2011-7-4 13:42

回復 Lik

If the hot monies last in the market for a while, what can HK government do to help the general public?
lo_pak 發表於 2011-7-4 13:22

Re-starting the 居屋 market would be a great start. A problemwith the private construction industry right now is, the luxury market is the hot market to pursue right now because that's where the most money can be made. Because of this, construction firms have little incentive to build regular housing projects for regular folks -- each company only has so much resource, and that resource would be better spent on where the high margin profits lie. So few private projects that are affordable to the local HK folks are introduced. Supply gets pinched but demand is always there, and bingo -- Econ 101 tells you that the market price gets driven up.

By restarting the 居屋 market, the housing supply increases, and prices will ease. The tricky part is to introduce that new 居屋 supply in a reasonable manner that will balance the public's housing needs without triggering a massive fall-off-the-cliff type of housing market crash that would kill home owners. I am far less sympathetic towards speculators though. If it means the real estate price drop cuts into their bottom line a bit, so be it. A small scale recession is ok in my eyes if it means housing prices can be brought back to realistic levels. Large scale recessions are unacceptable because that would hurt the regular folks too much.

-Lik

作者: lo_pak 時間: 2011-7-4 13:42

回復 14# peter236

We all know that BC housing is hot, we can have a new discussion on that in a new post.
Back to this post, what's your suggestions/opinions to the HOS flats HK government is proposing?

作者: lo_pak 時間: 2011-7-4 13:45

回復 15# Lik

With nowadays HKers, do you think they can understand/accept what you meant by "recession"?

作者: Lik 時間: 2011-7-4 13:46

Mr Lik when you first immigrated to Canada, your hot money also drove up real estate prices.

There are 250,000 immigrants to Canada, it is not fair to blame on the Chinese immigrants.

Mr Lik, please read and learn:

Chinese-Canadians and immigrants, not investors from China, largely driving market, experts say
peter236 發表於 2011-7-4 13:24

Moron,

The difference is, back when I first immigrated to Vancouver, population was a lot smaller, prices were a lot lower, and there was still plenty of space and land for people to move to. Additionally, while prices went up in the 90's, they didn't go up by the same unreasonable amounts as they do now.

Your stupid little article only confirms that the hot money from the Motherland is driving up our housing prices. Thanks for doing the homework for me and helping me to prove my point.

-Lik

作者: peter236 時間: 2011-7-4 14:06

本帖最後由 peter236 於 2011-7-4 14:13 編輯

Moron,

The difference is, back when I first immigrated to Vancouver, population was a lot smaller, ...
Lik 發表於 2011-7-4 13:46

The article written by the experts proves that you are wrong.

Unless you want Canada stops all immigration. There are 250,000 immigrants to Canada, it is not fair to blame on the Chinese immigrants.

I would rather believe in the experts, than an anti-Chinese bashers like you.

Chinese-Canadians and immigrants, not investors from China, largely driving market, experts say

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/busi ... .html#ixzz1RB3PjQIF

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