加國屋價恐下跌 加拿大, 利率

bubble

資本經濟(Capital Economics)的最新報告預測﹐一旦利率回升﹐加國房地產市場會崩潰﹐屋價3年內跌幅可高達25%﹐甚或35%﹐10%按揭無力償還﹐按揭公司損失100億元。

絕大多數經濟師預料﹐央行在春末或夏初將開始加息﹐利率將從現在的1%﹐提高至年底的2%。

預料加拿大央行明年也會繼續提高政策利率﹐直到2012年底回復至正常水平的3.5%左右。

資本經濟的加拿大首席經濟師馬達尼(David Madani)表示﹐那將對房價與經濟帶來深遠衝擊。

kingkong123

Wrong.  Not all of them got knock down.  Look at the amount of bungalow that got renovated and flip ...
MSN04 發表於 2011-2-7 10:33

    你的意思米一样咯，水涨船高啊嘛，市场是被拉动的嘛

MSN04

加拿大米一样 purchase all you want in canada 同美国一dog 样
kingkong123 發表於 2011-2-7 09:42

Geez... you didn't get my point?
That's exactly what I was talking about.  For an investor, there is no restriction to buy in Canada or US.  Just ask yourself, at current market, which market has more potential to get more gain over the next 10 years?

MSN04

It is all about interest rate.  Stupid.  

As long as money is pretty much free.  Asset bubbles will ...
Look4chrisng 發表於 2011-2-7 09:46

Completely disagree.  Interest rate for sure have some impact, but it is not "all about interest rate".  See both Japan and Australia as examples.

MSN04

有钱人当然唔会住bungalow啦，白痴都知道，有钱人睇中的系baungalow的地 唔系间屋，人地要推倒重建

Wrong.  Not all of them got knock down.  Look at the amount of bungalow that got renovated and flip.  That suggests how much speculators (i mean investors) we have in the market.

并非有钱就唔会借钱，有钱就更加要借钱。越有钱借钱越多。

With a record high debt of more than 1 trillion, we can conclude that we are a economically strong country
   

至于零首期贷款，在加拿大是极少的，利息也是起码是post rate

Are you sure?  Again, average downpayment is 7%.  Why did government get rid of the 0 downpayment rule?  Ever heard of some unethical practice with cash rebate, or using credit line to get the required 5%?

Look4chrisng

It is all about interest rate.  Stupid.  

As long as money is pretty much free.  Asset bubbles will continue.  But when rate starts to increase, it will be very ugly in Vancouver.  Rich people will always be fine, but the middle and low income folks will suffer.  - Higher mortgage payments, dropping RE value, higher taxes.

kingkong123

Oh... and I forgot to mention one thing.  You don't need to be a citizen to buy a house in US.  Fo ...
MSN04 發表於 2011-2-7 02:33

    加拿大米一样 purchase all you want in canada 同美国一dog 样

kingkong123

I really don't understand lor.  Are you a real estate agent?

I did not know that rich people are  ...
MSN04 發表於 2011-2-7 02:13

什么叫水涨船高？ 温哥华就是甘的情况

有钱人当然唔会住bungalow啦，白痴都知道，有钱人睇中的系baungalow的地 唔系间屋，人地要推倒重建

另外关于mortgage， 有钱人，做生意的人一定会做mortgage，就算几有钱都会用mortgage。因为做生意最紧要的就是cash flow。 这个就是做大生意的原则。 并非有钱就唔会借钱，有钱就更加要借钱。越有钱借钱越多。 你去问问李嘉诚她会唔会借钱做生意。越有钱的借钱越多。  这个就是经济学的贡杆原理

至于零首期贷款，在加拿大是极少的，利息也是起码是post rate

MSN04

美国点同啊？ 移民美国容易还是移民加拿大容易啊？ 美国当时有没甘多中国投资移民啊？kingkong123 發表於 2011-2-6 13:22

Oh... and I forgot to mention one thing.  You don't need to be a citizen to buy a house in US.  For investment purpose or just "storing money" (i call BS on this one too), you can purchase all you want in US.

MSN04

多有钱人竞投高房价，就会拉高房价咯，甘你都唔明白？

外来的人随便只要放低30%首期，就可以在银行随便 ...
kingkong123 發表於 2011-2-6 13:22

I really don't understand lor.  Are you a real estate agent?

I did not know that rich people are interested in bungalow.  I can understand that rich people would snap up the multi-million dollar luxury houses in west end.  But crappy bungalow?? really??

30% downpayment?  1st, i did not know that rich people with hot money would need a mortgage.  Even if they want a mortgage b/c the money is pretty much free (due to low interest rate), that is for sure not the majority of the mortgage in Canada.  The mortgage in Canada has an average of 7% downpayment.

But you nail one point correctly.  Even people with no money can get a mortgage.  Does it remind you sth similar that happened in US called subprime?

Well... i guess you are right.  We are different here.  Chinese only love Canada.  They don't like US, Europe, or wherever is having a housing crash. (pretty much everywhere except Canada and Australia)