Again, don't be stupid and think a little sin la.
China has around $800 BILLION worth of loan to the US. Any dramatic devaluation to the USD will cause significant losses to China. How much extra GDP would China need to generate in order to just balance that loss to USD devaluation?! Again, don't be stupid la.
It is in China's interest to gradually shift its foreign investment dependencies on the USD so that it wouldn't be as prone to USD fluctuations. It is also in the US' interest to let the USD devalue a bit (but not too much) to help itself with exports and to allow the debt to grow smaller in real terms.
In the foreseeable future, the USD is still the most dependable currency and investment shelter in the international market even though it is losing ground. As the economy recovers, however, investors are gonna withdrawl from investing in the currency and re-divert them to something real, and the USD will devalue a bit. As to how long this will take and what level it'll reach, I don't think any analyst will have a concrete idea.
-Lik |