置業率愈高 失業率愈高 西班牙, 意大利, 瑞士

lo_pak

【明報專訊】王震宇是個不一樣的分析員，除了分析樓市及地產股，他更愛評論政策。他反對復建居屋的立場廣為人知，原來他的理論基礎是，一個地方愈多置業優惠，失業率便愈高。「我看過一些統計，一個國家的置業率與失業率原來成正比。在意大利、西班牙，置業率有七八成，失業率就超過10％。反而瑞士、德國，置業率只有四成多，失業率只有5％、6％。這是因為大家置了業，就不願搬，勞動力流動性低，失業率便高。」

置業後 勞動人口不願搬

他反對居屋，是因為他反對政府推優惠催谷市民置業。「政府愈插手，樓市波動會愈大，所有資助置業的政策，都是Pro-cyclical的（順周期，即好市時刺激樓價升，淡市時刺激樓價跌）。」所以他覺得港府推物業利息免稅額，亦是不合理地推動港人置業。「為何市民付租金不能有免稅額？」

政府津貼買樓 令樓市更波動

雖然他反對復建居屋，但他很贊成加按揭成數。「我希望政府能長期維持現在按揭五六成的政策，不要在市跌時又放鬆。只有減低買樓的槓桿，才能減少短炒，令樓價波幅真的與經濟增長看齊。」

「這樣香港人才不再想著怎樣炒樓賺大錢，反而學下德國人及瑞士人，多點去想怎樣做些高增值的東西。」

lo_pak

Open for discussion...

Although this fellow has some points with data backup, I feel like he has improperly interpreting his data...

IMO, there's an optimal point in between instead of saying one way or another...

lo_pak

回復 3# Lik

So, in short, you have assumed:

1) Market is not fair;
2) Market is at an irrational stage;
3) Consumer has preference;

Correct me if I've mistakenly interpret your meaning.

lo_pak

回復 6# peter236

?? What's your assumptions?

lo_pak

回復 10# peter236

So do you mean that HK government reacts too sluggish to the market?

lo_pak

回復 7# Lik

If the hot monies last in the market for a while, what can HK government do to help the general public?

lo_pak

回復 14# peter236

We all know that BC housing is hot, we can have a new discussion on that in a new post.
Back to this post, what's your suggestions/opinions to the HOS flats HK government is proposing?

lo_pak

回復 15# Lik

With nowadays HKers, do you think they can understand/accept what you meant by "recession"?