大C姐

視乎個人能力啦。如果能力OK﹐供得唔係辛乎﹐個市跌咬實唔放都可以唔洗蝕(個市跌完可以升)。你話會唔會跌超過50%﹐呢個我唔夠膽講啦。即係話Vancouver會唔會大地震陸沉﹐如果真係咁大穫我會磕埋對眼同親戚朋友攬住死囉﹐諗咁多都無用。

都係果句﹐如果好extreme嘅例子係D樓價仆直﹐個市亦有機會一直升多20年先跌。你係咪租20年樓先? 唔好話20年咁誇啦﹐10年都幾閉翳。

大C姐

google "vancouver real estate chart"  will give you lots of chart like these.


this is an article w ...
supersuper 發表於 2010-9-30 12:56

你用呢個chart都可以有幾個角度啦。一來你可以話個價近年升得特別快可能會跌﹐但係你又可以望望過去30年樓價就算跌左﹐唔夠10年就升翻。若然你要選摘信呢個chart的話﹐你可以鬥長命﹐等3﹐5﹐7年一定去翻原位。

大C姐

I don't think i can live on fibbi's budget, i can easily spent $100 a week on myself in a supermarket. There are always household items to buy in supermarket like toilet paper, cleaning products, shampoo & conditioner, lotion, hair products, toothpaste, etc etc....

and even spending $100 a week, i don't expect to cook everyday and eat every meal at home.... Personally, buying/ renting cost should not exceed more than 1/3 of your income. i guess my point is, if you have to "stress" about paying your mortgage each month, then DON'T buy, just rent something cheaper (eg, basement, a single room)!

大C姐

你有啲問題
供樓同租樓
大家都講緊係相差唔遠嘅
分別係
供樓係要有一筆首期先
如果拆掂首期
基本上
...
sheep 發表於 2010-10-1 09:33

This time i agree with you.

Based on my assumption of 60K gross income (if you make more/less than this, you can adjust the equation accordingly), i think it's reasonable to spend 1/3 of that on housing, which is around $1650. Property tax and maintenance fee add up to about $400/ month, you still have $1250 toward your mortgage. Using that budget, you can go shop for a home. Depending how much money you have to put down as downpayment, i think there are plenty of properties in "Greater Vancouver" to choose from.

On top of housing, you still have around $2000 to spend and save (for rainy days), i think it's very "comfortable" lifestyle! Keep in mind, interest rate may rise and drop but generally speaking your income should grow in the long run.

大C姐

If you have 20%/30% paid off on the house...
- A 20/30% drop on the home would've wiped the equity ...
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010-10-1 13:48

    You're 100% right. I think every home owner understands the risks involved.

BUT, if the real estate market drops by 20-30% (that is not unusual in HK but it's indeed quite dramatic for Vancouver), who's in the position to buy then? To have such an extreme drop in market, one can reasonably assume that the overall economy would suffer. Mortgager lenders will tighten their policy and demand higher % downpayment; your job may not be as secured... will you be in good position to buy a property then? to "buy cheap"?

Let's assume you have the downpayment at that point. If you hold your cash in your saving account it may be okay, but if you're holding investments, you can only hop they will not go down with the RE market at that point. And besides, the interest rate is still unknown! Just because RE market is down doesn't necessarily mean the interest rate is low, if interest rate is 10%, is it clever to buy then? After all these finanical consideration, there is still no guarentee that you'll find a property you love.......

It's always ideal to aim for that "perfect time" to buy low and sell high, but there are so many different variables, sometimes it's easier to just look at your wallet and buy what you can afford now (as i previously mentioned).

大C姐

Those who have been really savvy with their money will step in.



By now people should know how t ...
快樂牛郎 發表於 2010-10-1 16:01

    金融風暴/開嘯果陣﹐好多小市民都無cash架嘛。你儲錢放入銀行咩﹗若然突然跌市﹐你會唔會蝕住賣股票套現去買樓? 真係囉得起錢出嚟係好少數。仲有﹐呢D特殊環景之下﹐銀行會提高借貸要求。一搬普通市民唔係大把錢的話都好難借到錢買樓(問屋企人就更加難啦)。

好啦﹐當你有首期逆市買樓﹐又有理想嘅平貨執。你可唔可以等到個interest rate又低﹐個匯律又低呢? 好多人D投資都放喺香港﹐你計唔計到呢條數先? 計唔到的話﹐你咪即係等運到囉﹗

你單單望住一個chart就話個樓市比平均線高30%﹐點點點點個市會跌。若然你有埋其他statistic加埋所有其他variable做一個regression我就會覺得有少少可信性。如果你計到條equation假設3年後個樓價/interest rate/ exchange rate等等都會跌﹐之後又即刻會升﹐OK﹐呢D錢抵你賺﹗我自問技不如人。因為我哋一般小市民無可能會識計呢條數。專業人士都未必計得準﹐所以唔好囉住好片面數據去無閒放大。我唔係話你哋講嘅係錯﹐但係唔夠全面。你估到個市跌唔代表一齊﹐加幣貴40%又點呢? 我哋呢D港燦又用咩俾錢呢??


所以點解我之前講﹐你現在覺特買得過就買啦。聽日發生咩事根本唔到你去諗﹐去計。你話等5年會跌﹐我呢5年住得舒服都賺左啦﹗

大C姐

仲有講多句。

有D人話而家買樓﹐leverage點高點高﹐我個人經驗而言﹐同樓市高低係無咩關係。

假設你原本個budget係$300K﹐淨係買到個studio flat。到樓市勁跌果陣﹐10個有9個人都唔會用$200K買個studio flat﹐只會用翻原本果$300K搏個兩房單位。最後借嘅錢都會係一樣﹐呢個係普遍人嘅心態。

我唔識太多金融理論﹐只係識得人多﹐憑經驗講說話。有時淨係以數據上理論係一件事﹐事實真係為生活買樓又係另一回事。


-- 自細得高人指點嘅大C姐

大C姐

That's why the perspective is skewed. Chinese/Honger are hardly the norm in the Canadian housing m ...
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010-10-4 10:05

    I don't know if i want to say "MOST LYK are average Canadians with investments in Canada and US"... but at least in my case, or the people around me, have some kind of investment in HK/ other places (Taiwan, China, Singapore, etc). So foreign exchange does indeed play a role. Just like HKD to CAD in the past 8 years or so, it went from 5.6 to 7.4 (roughly) that's more than 30% already! So even if the real estate priced didn't soar, one still have to put 30% more in downpayment should you have cash in HKD.

My point is, if you were to wait for the prices to go down, you may as well factor in interest rate and foreign exchange and other relevant variables to you. Since ONE variable is hard enough to project, adding all other considerations in the equation will make it next to impossible to project (for NORMAL people anyway, again, i don't think the majority of the people on this forum are top tier financial experts).

So yes, as you said, if you have the downpayment NOW and you can afford it NOW, it's probably a good time to buy. You need not to worry about affordability of others, because when things change, everyone's siutation may be different, everyone's affordability may be sensitive to different things. As you said, foreign exchagne rate may not be relevant to you, but perhaps very relevant to someone like me. So it's dumb to say the affordability of GENERAL Vancouverites is low, thus, it is a bad time to buy for everyone.

That's my perspective from the gecko.

大C姐

I don't know if that's necassarily the case. I think the low housing affordability definatley make ...
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010-10-4 10:18

   MOST people go a little over-budget (or at least AT their budgt) when they shop for homes. How often do you hear people say "oh i pay less for my home than i thought!" I mean, you can say that in the ideal world, but in reality, most people will just stick to 250K they know they can get from the bank and buy the 2 bedroom simply because they think the prices have dropped and they've made a "profit" already buying low, they need not to be more conservative than before when the prices were higher.

There are, of course, people who are aiming at specific units and when prices drop they buy those specific units for cheaper... but i don't think that's the norm.

大C姐

Not trying to convince you anymore, because your reference point is isolated to you and people you ...
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010-10-4 12:53

我好明你想講咩﹐你嘅出發點係以大圍數據出發﹐我亦唔會反對樓市近呢幾年過熱嘅事實。不過我都係講果句啦﹐睇住自己荷包做人啦。若然你大把錢﹐喺Vancouver買間屋幾百萬﹐淨係裝修都唔止幾十萬﹐就算市價跌30-40%你都根本唔會care!! 相反﹐若然你餐揾餐食餐餐清﹐買樓根本蝕唔起。好似D師奶股神日日喺銀行門口度﹐賺就賺餐茶﹐蝕就蝕身家。無論個statistic話市價平定貴我都建意咪鬼買啦﹗咩係平呢? 平唔會蝕咩?

如果所有人淨係見到報紙話樓價高就唔買﹐樓價跌就買﹐咪就係人云亦云嘅羊囉。