President Vladimir Putin. A draft Russian budget for 2015-2017 passed its first reading in the Duma, the country's parliament, Friday despite the finance minister warning that it was based on an "alternative economic reality." According to Vedomosti, the independent Russian business daily newspaper, the draft budget is based on forecasts of an average oil price of $100 a barrel over the next three years, Western sanctions being lifted in 2015, and an acceleration of growth from next year. Right now, those assumptions look delusional. Since the middle of the year, the oil price has been crashing, falling from a high of $115 a barrel in June to below $86 a barrel Monday. Goldman Sachs believes oil will fall to $80 a barrel, with Morgan Stanley giving a 45% probability that it could hold around that level.
This has mainly been due to positive supply shocks with oil production in Libya, Russia, and Iraq all coming in above estimates and the US shale boom continuing to put downward pressure on prices. | 
發表於 2014-10-27 10:46
|