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中國:2040年全球唯一超級大國?

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為甚麼中國那麼成功、那麼繁榮﹐而美國卻陷入了偏執的自毀文化??

Ask Peter!

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本帖最後由 lo_pak 於 2010-9-23 09:48 編輯

If the ethical standard in China didn't get raised, China can't bear the term "strong"... It's more or less JUST a super nation filled with money slaves ONLY...

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The bigger problem is, given China's current one child policy, the economic success that China is currently enjoying is gonna start vanishing into thin air in 15 - 20 year's time. Burdened with an aging population, the social problems are gonna be signficantly bigger than what the western countries are currently facing with the aging baby boomers. Correspondingly, economic output is going to drop significantly. In fact, the economic drop off might happen sooner than the social problem of population aging because people's output and performance drops off well before they reach the age of retirement.

-Lik

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本帖最後由 peter236 於 2010-9-23 11:04 編輯
The bigger problem is, given China's current one child policy, the economic success that China is cu ...
Lik 發表於 2010-9-23 10:27


It is Japan that is vanishing now due to its aging population.
But just look at the number of mainlanders going to Hong Kong to give birth to babies, there is still growth.
The one child policy has so many exceptions these days.

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It is Japan that is vanishing now due to its aging population.
But just look at the number of mainlanders going to Hong Kong to give birth to babies, there is still growth.
The one child policy has so many exceptions these days.
peter236 發表於 2010-9-23 11:02

True, Japan is facing a very serious issue with their aging population. And look what has happened to their economy in the last 15 - 20 years. The aging population certainly isn't the exclusive reason for their poor economic performance, but this is definitely one of the contributing factors. The aging problem in China is only going to be dramatically more serious than Japan.

You must be brain dead to mention Mainlanders going to HK to give birth. Do you even know what kind of people those are, and how much it'll cost to give birth in Hong Kong? I don't have the exact number off the top of my head, but I think it's somewhere around HKD$30k to $40k. This is not a sum that any commoner in China can cough up! In terms of percentages, the number of Mainlanders giving birth in China and thus evading the 1-child policy wouldn't even make up for 0.001% of the overall Chinese birth rate.

There is still growth wor? Moron~

-Lik

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本帖最後由 peter236 於 2010-9-23 11:53 編輯

You moron~~

Like I said before the one child policy is only applicable to urban people, but not the rural people.
Also, couples who are single child can have more children.
They are not as dumb as you think, as the one child policy is begin relaxed in many ways.

But then many younger people want to spend more time to develop their careers. Also, the cost of living is also increasing. All these factors will also affect the situation.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8166413.stm

Shanghai urges 'two-child policy'

Officials in Shanghai are urging parents to have a second child, the first time in decades the government has pushed for more babies.

A public information campaign has been launched to highlight exemptions to the country's one-child policy.

Couples who were both only children, which includes most of the city's newly-weds, are allowed a second child.

The move comes as China's most populous city becomes richer and older, with the number of retired residents soaring.

"Shanghai's over-60 population already exceeds three million, or 21.6% of registered residents," said Zhang Meixin, a spokesman for the city's Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission.

Leaflet campaign

He said the current average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime was less than one.

If all couples have children according to the policy, it would definitely help relieve pressure in the long term," he added.

Decades of a strictly enforced one-child policy has produced new strains across the population and prompted exceptions in some family categories. Rural parents are also allowed to have a second child, if the first-born is a girl.

In Shanghai, family planning officials and volunteers will make home visits and slip leaflets under doors to encourage couples to have a second child if both grew up as only children.

Emotional and financial counselling will also be provided, officials said.

By 2020, the country's most populous city is expected to have more than a third of residents aged 60 or above.

Policy relaxed

According to the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, by 2050 the country will have just 1.6 working-age adults to support each retired person, compared to 7.7 in 1975.

The state-controlled newspaper China Daily quoted one salesman who said he was cheered by the new attitude.

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Education is still a concern in China.  Most of the best people in China were educated in foreign schools.  Without quality domestic education, I can't see how a country to rise to power.  The same issue is plaguing the US right now as education went down the drain in the mist of the economic mess.

but seriously, 2040?
you should worry whether the world will survive till then

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