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To 高鐵Peter:一天燒1億 京滬高鐵憂錢景

http://udn.com/NEWS/MAINLAND/MAI3/6265196.shtml

一天燒1億 京滬高鐵憂錢景
【經濟日報╱記者林則宏/綜合報導】
       
2011.04.11 02:48 am

京滬高鐵將在6月通車,但大陸媒體指出,即便不考慮收回投資、不計算折舊,光運營成本和利息支出,京滬高鐵每日固定開銷就達人民幣2,630萬元(約新台幣1.16億元),未來「錢」途堪慮。

連接北京與上海這兩座中國最重要城市的京滬高速鐵路,從北京南站出發至上海虹橋站,全長1,318公里,貫穿北京、天津、上海三大直轄市及河北、山東、安徽、江蘇四省。通車後,從北京搭高鐵將可在五小時內抵達上海。

京滬高鐵總投資高達人民幣2,209億元(新台幣9,800億元),華夏時報指出,若按大陸鐵道部的計算方式,不將建設投資納入盈虧計算,也不考慮攤提折舊費用,光是日常營運成本和償還貸款利息,每年固定開銷高達人民幣96億元,即每天至少2,630萬元。

以現行大陸高鐵二等艙票價每公里人民幣0.484元計算,京滬高鐵全程票價約人民幣600元(約新台幣2,650元)。京滬高鐵將採用的「CRH380A動車組」共有16節車廂,可搭載1,004人。即便每班列車都客滿且全部乘客都是由起點坐到終點,每號列車的票價收入也才人民幣60萬元。

這代表未來京滬鐵路必須每天滿載營運44趟,才可能應付每天的營運成本及利息等基本開銷。
北京交通大學經濟管理學院副教授李紅昌指出,「京滬高鐵這種長、大幹線怎麼可能保證這樣的密度,這是很荒謬的。」

如果再考慮每年折舊率約3%至4%,京滬高鐵每年固定資產折舊費用大約是人民幣66億元至88億元(約新台幣292億元至389億元),且日後維修費用在通車後將會逐年增加。

由於京滬高鐵是委託給鐵路局代為運營,按京津城際鐵路委託費和武廣高鐵的委託費估算,京滬高鐵未來每年還得支付約人民幣30億元(約新台幣133億元)的委託運營費給鐵路局。

隨著京滬高鐵通車日期日益逼近,不少人也開始對大陸未來如何支撐這個昂貴的運輸工具感到憂心。大陸發改委綜合運輸研究所研究員董焰表示,「我覺得它的盈利狀況很難說會好。」

【2011/04/11 經濟日報】@ http://udn.com/

hahaha, the highspeed railway is good for commerce, tourism and environment. Just look at the highspeed railway between big cities like Tokyo and Osaka, which receive high praise. More highspeed railway still needed to be built. Very well done China again.

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Honestly, I don't think the Chinese government would really care whether this line will be profitable. It will subsidize it anyways. Just like the magnetic train in Shanghai Pudong. It was built never meant to be profitable.  

It is considered a strategic development. But you may not like it anyways.

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Honestly, I don't think the Chinese government would really care whether this line will be profitabl ...
rockypath 發表於 2011-4-11 01:18

China just cannot accommodate 1 billion cars on the road. That is the why the long term strategy is to have tens of millions of people using public transit, like railways and subways.
When the oil prices increase more in the future, the US economy will be destroyed since they are too dependent on cars. But the Chinese have electric powered highspeed railway, of which the energy source is much more flexible.

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本帖最後由 soli 於 2011-4-11 05:06 編輯

報紙個名就叫經濟日報﹐但講既野就一D經濟sense 都無﹐台灣報紙就係o甘既水準? ( 力仔更加沒水準係人所共知的啦~)
首先一日來回22趟﹐即是差不多45分鐘才一班﹐會很困難嗎? 我們說的是北京去上海呢。
仲有﹐鐵路收入就淨靠車票?
仲有﹐還款利息真是這麼高嗎? 還是沒扣除通脹? 我之前看﹐鐵路部貸款都是超低息的。不算投資回報的話﹐為甚麼算還款利息?
京滬高鐵會虧本的唯一原因是斗不過民航客機﹐但除著燃油價大幅上脹﹐再加上國民消費力上升﹐運輸需求增加﹐高鐵前景都算樂觀的。

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運輸需求增加.
soli 發表於 2011-4-11 05:04



    有腦筋
高鐵做埋貨運

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本帖最後由 rockypath 於 2011-4-11 09:47 編輯
有腦筋
高鐵做埋貨運
sheep 發表於 2011-4-11 06:05


高鐵完全應該做埋貨運。 速遞服務成本就可以大大降低和提高效率,好多大件貨品都可以得到速遞服務。速遞服務對提高社會經濟效率有好多幫助。

一個直接的效果就係可能促進 Online Business 的繁榮。到時你應該考慮下是否要投資淘寶網。

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物流?
千年百年煙雲外,縈懷的又豈是嬝娜輕愁..縱然碎落滿空星斗,我卻無法拭去記憶中那抹小小的 偶然, 凄酸 啊以及妳 長長睫影下的淚痕

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Honestly, I don't think the Chinese government would really care whether this line will be profitable. It will subsidize it anyways. Just like the magnetic train in Shanghai Pudong. It was built never meant to be profitable.
rockypath 發表於 2011-4-11 01:18

擺明蝕水蝕到嘔血都要做,阿爺真係天才。而你條粉腸明明係擦鞋擦到出晒面都仲要死坳自己係「中立」,你亦都係天才。

(當然,如果你所講嘅「中立」係指「站立於中方」果一便嘅話,咁就自然順理成章,而你亦更順理成章地無恥。)

-力

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本帖最後由 rockypath 於 2011-4-11 10:25 編輯
擺明蝕水蝕到嘔血都要做,阿爺真係天才。而你條粉腸明明係擦鞋擦到出晒面都仲要死坳自己係「中立」,你亦 ...
Lik 發表於 2011-4-11 10:06


Why don't you say the same thing to your God Father - the US government?

Didn't the US government decide to build a spider-web highway network to cover the whole US for its strategic needs and developments last century? Why don't you question how it would make the roads profitable?

How often did you drive on those roads? Just try on the roads especially in states which are in the middle of the US map. You often will find you are one of only a few cars on the road. But the roads were maintained under very well condition. Why don't you accuse the US government for 浪費民脂民膏?

真係想用粗口鬧X你。 想正正常常討論下都要來搞事。

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