人幣再創新高 超級通脹逼港 港美5年「零息」

Lik

http://news.mingpao.com/20110811/gac1.htm

人幣再創新高 超級通脹逼港
港美5年「零息」 政策延至2013

【明報專訊】美國聯邦儲備局周二宣布把2008年起實施的接近零息政策，起碼維持至2013年中，意味息口緊跟美國的香港也會史無前例地出現持續至少5年的超低息時代。

經濟分析師指出，理論上低息環境會令資金流入樓市、股市，但當前樓市股市有許多不明朗因素，只有商品價格長升長有，可能引致超級通脹。同時，人民幣再創匯改後新高，昨曾升至1美元兌6.412元人民幣水平。

專家警告物價無回頭

「零息時代」長達5年，在香港是史無前例。寶華世紀資本市場首席經濟師陳寶明直言，零息形成的禍害會愈來愈大，「資金太多，超級通脹將會很嚴重」。有「港版末日博士」之稱的交通銀行香港分行首席經濟及策略師羅家聰說，除「磚頭」（房產）外，一般物價包括食品、日用品價格都會升，「物價不會如樓價，升升會出現調整，有波動，物價只會一直向上，不會掉頭」。

歐美經濟面臨衰退，國際更看好人民幣。根據中國外匯交易中心數據，人民幣昨兌美元上揚0.19%，收報6.4181元人民幣兌1美元，一度觸及6.412元，是匯改以來最高水平。花旗估計，年底人民幣將見6.38，明年中見6.2。

分析師：減持貨幣增持金銀

羅家聰認為，即使持有人民幣，人民幣的升值步伐可能趕不上通脹，「應減持無限量供應的貨幣，增持限量供應的商品，例如實金、實銀」。

匯豐環球研究大中華區經濟師郭浩庄指出，目前大家對經濟前景缺乏信心，而且本港樓市形勢已和之前大不同，「香港土地供應增加，而且按揭利率已較之前上升，市場無信心，樓價反而會調整」。匯豐預期，多個成熟市場備受債務問題困擾，市場會更趨波動，但相信經濟將會放緩，而非大幅倒退。

陳寶明坦言，2013年後，聯儲局要回復正常利率，可能要面對很艱苦的通脹問題，利率的加幅和速度將既大且急。

Lik

我早就話聯繫匯率已經係不合時宜。你港元同美元掛鉤，息口就唯有局住跟人地美國佬走，但偏偏中國大陸就一直面對通脹同人仔升值壓力。香港夾響中間，只有左右做人難。到最後，要受嘅咪又係香港人？（特別係低下階層最無能力去承受呢啲打擊嘅人...）

-力

rockypath

我早就話聯繫匯率已經係不合時宜。你港元同美元掛鉤，息口就唯有局住跟人地美國佬走，但偏偏中國大陸就一直 ...
Lik 發表於 2011-8-10 13:04

How are you doing to maintain the stability of HK dollar if 港元同美元脫鉤?

I would like to listen to your 高見.

Lik

You can re-adjust / re-define the exchange rate if you still want it tied to the USD. You can firmly or loosely peg it to something else (RMB and Euro might be good choices). You can specify a basket of reference currencies and determine a open and transparent formula for the HKD based on that basket (eg. 40% USD @$7.8, 20% Euro @$11, 20% GBP @$12, 10% Yen @whatever, 10% RMB @whatever). You can just let it float in the market since you have that huge sum sitting in the reserves anyway. There are more than a few possibilities of what can be done. The worse thing to do is what the SAR government is doing right now, which is to continue with the USD pegging at current rates when it is hurting HK more than anything else.

I'd like to see what kind of wise insights you have that would ease the widespread and far reaching woes brought on by the pegging of the USD at $7.8. Let's actually hear you say something semi-useful instead of just bs-ing and challenging others without contributing anything of value yourself.

-Lik

lo_pak

回復 3# rockypath

To be honest, linked exchange rate system is a 2-blade sword; Inflation is a must. In one way, it stablizes uncertainities; On the other hand, it minimizes the flexibility of utilizing momentary policies.

To the minds of general public, if HK government have huge reserve, the cancellation of the system is certainly an option; But, it's not the time yet. The first step should be linking to a bundle of different currencies.

IMO, the USD/HKD @ 7.8 exchange rate remains for 3 decades is totally retarded... Ask oneself why don't we simply use USD instead?

Lik

In the past 10+ years, the pegging of the HKD to the USD has caused nothing but trouble for HK. In the 02 - 05 era when HK was hit hard by the Asia financial crisis, the strong USD (and thus strong HKD) resulted in HK being the slowest economy to recover in all of Asia. As the US economy cooled while China's rose, the upward pressure of the RMB and inflation in China are causing huge inflations in HK as well. So let me ask you, Rocky, this -- where is the stability that you said the pegging would bring? All I can see is HK getting hit hard time after time because of the outdated monetary policy.

There was a time when the $7.8 peg was meaningful, but that time has long passed.

And I am still waiting for your wise words.

-Lik

rockypath

回復 5# lo_pak

I won't waste my time on an idiot mad dog Lik, but found it is more enjoyable to talk with you in a 正常人的溝通方式.

I personally believe the linked exchange rate system is still very vital to maintain the stability of HK economy at current stage. Yes, it has obvious drawbacks and same as other kinds of exchange rate system.

It needs to be readjusted or reformed, but all of this must be taken by steps and gradually allowing the economy to adopt the changes. I certainly do not support the immediate abandonment of the current system.

lo_pak

回復 7# rockypath

Instead of 7.8, what rate do you think is appropraite for the current situation.

P.S. - I think Lik is quite calm these days...

Lik

原來之前吹得咁行，結果咪又係得個假大空？

Lemme give you another chance to redeem yourself.

1) How is the USD pegging still vital to HK's stability? (You'll need to show some convincing evidence of how your supporting facts outweigh the local, China, and US-related negatives that I mentioned.)

2) Your so called "gradual adjustment / reforms" will just not work. If you take your time in coming up with a policy, other players in the market will figure out the direction you are trying to go and game the system accordingly. For example, if you tell people that the US exchange rate will be gradually dropped over 5 steps by $0.2 each quarter, with a target rate of reaching $6.8 after 5 quarters, buyers are gonna hold off all their transactions as much as they can until 5 quarters later because they know they'll get a better deal later. Your economy will instantly tank, and you are only shooting yourself in the foot. If you adjust the rate, the plan needs to be kept in secrecy until it actually happens, and then you just drop the bomb on the market. But even if the SAR government tries to do this, it is still not going to work b/c people will invariably tip off the local big and wealthy (Uncle +x etc., perhaps?) so that they will know how to react to the situation. And then the market will just follow the leaders, and you're back to square one.

Oh well... I never expected anything meaningful coming out of you anyway~

-力

rockypath

回復  rockypath

Instead of 7.8, what rate do you think is appropraite for the current situation.

...
lo_pak 發表於 2011-8-10 15:41

The rate is not something more important than the stability or the predictability if it is a better term.  

HK government can change the rate if it sees appropriate and it doesn't affect the core of the system.