快樂牛郎

I am not very concerned about certain trends emerges and take off on me. Greed is good but I try to keep it reasonably in check. BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010/10/1 16:08

I find this very hard to do even for myself, and I tend to take on excessive risk when I see the chance in my favor.

MSN04

回復  MSN04


    So in the example case, if you were to get married and need to move out, would yo ...
fibbi 發表於 2010-9-30 23:18

Hmm... that is a good question.  I would rent if I have to look for a shelter now based on a rough calculation.  The rent to own ratio is about 200 to 250 now, if i remember correctly.  So, let say a property worth 300k, and take an average rent to own ratio would equivaltent to about 1350/mo for rent.  If i have to own that property, the carrying cost would be:
Let say I am a good guy with 25% downpayment, so I need to borrow 225k.  For an assumed interested rate of 4% forever for 35 years, i need to pay about 190k interest.  190k divided by 35 years and 12 months is 450 per month.
Property tax: 100?
Strata / maintenence: 200?
Utilities: 100?
House insurance: 100?
So conservatively, the carrying cost for owning is $950?  
Knowing that the housing has more chance to go down, and also, the $950 does not include the principle that I am paying over the 35 years.  (i.e. tie up my money for possible investments)...  It sounds more reasonable to rent.  Of course, u can always argue that house price will shoot up like cracy, or interest rate can be low forever, or the items above cost actually much less... but I guess u get my point?

大C姐

Those who have been really savvy with their money will step in.



By now people should know how t ...
快樂牛郎 發表於 2010-10-1 16:01

    金融風暴/開嘯果陣﹐好多小市民都無cash架嘛。你儲錢放入銀行咩﹗若然突然跌市﹐你會唔會蝕住賣股票套現去買樓? 真係囉得起錢出嚟係好少數。仲有﹐呢D特殊環景之下﹐銀行會提高借貸要求。一搬普通市民唔係大把錢的話都好難借到錢買樓(問屋企人就更加難啦)。

好啦﹐當你有首期逆市買樓﹐又有理想嘅平貨執。你可唔可以等到個interest rate又低﹐個匯律又低呢? 好多人D投資都放喺香港﹐你計唔計到呢條數先? 計唔到的話﹐你咪即係等運到囉﹗

你單單望住一個chart就話個樓市比平均線高30%﹐點點點點個市會跌。若然你有埋其他statistic加埋所有其他variable做一個regression我就會覺得有少少可信性。如果你計到條equation假設3年後個樓價/interest rate/ exchange rate等等都會跌﹐之後又即刻會升﹐OK﹐呢D錢抵你賺﹗我自問技不如人。因為我哋一般小市民無可能會識計呢條數。專業人士都未必計得準﹐所以唔好囉住好片面數據去無閒放大。我唔係話你哋講嘅係錯﹐但係唔夠全面。你估到個市跌唔代表一齊﹐加幣貴40%又點呢? 我哋呢D港燦又用咩俾錢呢??


所以點解我之前講﹐你現在覺特買得過就買啦。聽日發生咩事根本唔到你去諗﹐去計。你話等5年會跌﹐我呢5年住得舒服都賺左啦﹗

大C姐

仲有講多句。

有D人話而家買樓﹐leverage點高點高﹐我個人經驗而言﹐同樓市高低係無咩關係。

假設你原本個budget係$300K﹐淨係買到個studio flat。到樓市勁跌果陣﹐10個有9個人都唔會用$200K買個studio flat﹐只會用翻原本果$300K搏個兩房單位。最後借嘅錢都會係一樣﹐呢個係普遍人嘅心態。

我唔識太多金融理論﹐只係識得人多﹐憑經驗講說話。有時淨係以數據上理論係一件事﹐事實真係為生活買樓又係另一回事。


-- 自細得高人指點嘅大C姐

BiscottiGelato

金融風暴/開嘯果陣﹐好多小市民都無cash架嘛。你儲錢放入銀行咩﹗若然突然跌市﹐你會唔會蝕住賣股票 ...
大C姐 發表於 2010-10-1 22:20

That's why the perspective is skewed. Chinese/Honger are hardly the norm in the Canadian housing market. I don't think the majority on this forum are the kind that have plenty of foreign investments and assets in HK. I think the majority are more like the average Canadians, working locally with majority of their assets in the country (or at max, in the US). Besides, if the global economy tanks, the most likely scenario is USD/HKD rise against CAD... so ones with assets in HK would be able to afford more real-estates in Canada with the same money anyways.

Besides, the argument that one won't have the cash to downpay is non-sense. If someone have the money to put in as down payment now, if he/she chooses to do so, can easily put it in some safer investments and enter the housing market at a more favorable entry point later. If one doesn't have the money for downpayment now, then he/she can't possibly enter the market now anyways. Either way, there's nothing that bounds someone to not being able to enter the market later, esp if he/she can afford to enter the market now.

BiscottiGelato

仲有講多句。

有D人話而家買樓﹐leverage點高點高﹐我個人經驗而言﹐同樓市高低係無咩關係。

假設你原本 ...
大C姐 發表於 2010-10-1 23:23

I don't know if that's necassarily the case. I think the low housing affordability definatley makes people pay a bigger portion of their income towards accomodations. If housing are more affordable, I am sure there are more people than not that's going to go for a cheaper place.

Aka. If a Studio is going for 250k now, and prices dropped such that a Studio is 180k instead, with 2 bedrooms going for 250k. I think people will probably buy a bigger place than a studio, but would probably go for a 1 bedroom at say, 210k. In general, leverage should go down. This is especially true for a market where affordability is very poor. Regardless, for the Vancouver market, leverage will definately not stay constant if housing prices cools down.

大C姐

That's why the perspective is skewed. Chinese/Honger are hardly the norm in the Canadian housing m ...
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010-10-4 10:05

    I don't know if i want to say "MOST LYK are average Canadians with investments in Canada and US"... but at least in my case, or the people around me, have some kind of investment in HK/ other places (Taiwan, China, Singapore, etc). So foreign exchange does indeed play a role. Just like HKD to CAD in the past 8 years or so, it went from 5.6 to 7.4 (roughly) that's more than 30% already! So even if the real estate priced didn't soar, one still have to put 30% more in downpayment should you have cash in HKD.

My point is, if you were to wait for the prices to go down, you may as well factor in interest rate and foreign exchange and other relevant variables to you. Since ONE variable is hard enough to project, adding all other considerations in the equation will make it next to impossible to project (for NORMAL people anyway, again, i don't think the majority of the people on this forum are top tier financial experts).

So yes, as you said, if you have the downpayment NOW and you can afford it NOW, it's probably a good time to buy. You need not to worry about affordability of others, because when things change, everyone's siutation may be different, everyone's affordability may be sensitive to different things. As you said, foreign exchagne rate may not be relevant to you, but perhaps very relevant to someone like me. So it's dumb to say the affordability of GENERAL Vancouverites is low, thus, it is a bad time to buy for everyone.

That's my perspective from the gecko.

大C姐

I don't know if that's necassarily the case. I think the low housing affordability definatley make ...
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010-10-4 10:18

   MOST people go a little over-budget (or at least AT their budgt) when they shop for homes. How often do you hear people say "oh i pay less for my home than i thought!" I mean, you can say that in the ideal world, but in reality, most people will just stick to 250K they know they can get from the bank and buy the 2 bedroom simply because they think the prices have dropped and they've made a "profit" already buying low, they need not to be more conservative than before when the prices were higher.

There are, of course, people who are aiming at specific units and when prices drop they buy those specific units for cheaper... but i don't think that's the norm.

sheep

oh i pay less for my home than i thought
大C姐 發表於 2010-10-4 10:36

    yes, that really happens to me.
My RE agent got a good deal for me and so happen that seller need money desperately.

匿名

金融風暴/開嘯果陣﹐好多小市民都無cash架嘛。你儲錢放入銀行咩﹗若然突然跌市﹐你會唔會蝕住賣股票 ...
大C姐 發表於 2010-10-1 22:20

    我尋晚同盲公陳食飯﹐他說的話同你一毛一樣﹐你係咪響他隔離擺檔的那個爛賭思﹖好似話她的名字同你差唔多耶~