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中國為什麼不願和達賴對話？

【明報3月29日專訊】西藏問題是一團迷霧，只要你朝它多走一步，你就會發現原來所相信的任何一種簡單立場都能碰上理據十足的反駁。不只現在的西方媒體造假與中國傳媒監控各惹嫌疑，歷史上的詭局謎團更是令人眼花撩亂。如果你認為「自古以來」，西藏就是中國的一部分；你將會發現要花很多時間去解釋古代宗主國對藩屬的關係為什麼等同於現代民族國家和它的轄下省份(越南反而是中華王朝的一省)。反過來說，如果你相信在「中國入侵」之前，西藏是片連丁點暴力都不可能發生的和平淨土；那麼你又該如何理解14任達賴喇嘛裏頭只有3位順利活到成年的事實呢？假如你覺得文革對西藏的破壞是不可饒恕的，你或許應該知道當年打砸佛寺佛像的主力之一竟然是藏人。假如你認為中央對西藏的宗教自由已經足夠寬容，甚至准許流亡在外的眾多上師返鄉建寺(最有名的當屬頂果欽哲法王)；你可能也曉得現在的西藏小學生是連隨身護符也不准帶的。

在種種互相衝突的證據和理論之上，任何一方要是堅持自己的行動方向，其實都是在玩一場後果難斷的賭局。為什麼明明有那麼多線索顯示與達賴喇嘛漸行漸遠的「西藏青年大會」才是騷亂主謀，中央政府仍然堅持要把達賴拉下水呢？為什麼中央不肯聽陳思這些獨立學者的意見，趁並不堅持獨立而且態度溫和的達賴喇嘛圓寂前與他對話呢？

這就是中國政府的賭局了。大家都曉得，就算達賴在海外轉世，一個幼年的靈童也起不了什麼作用。近日，十七世大寶法王將要接下藏人精神領袖位置的傳聞甚囂塵上，證據之一是他剛剛才公開向藏傳佛教各派上師致請安禱文，大有團結各派系的意思。可是，即便尊貴如他，恐怕也代替不了達賴喇嘛在藏民與世界各地支持者心目中的地位。沒錯，達賴一走，中國就會少掉一個難以應付的對手，但是激進的「藏青會」豈不也是會趁勢崛起？各種極端的主張和暴力的手段豈不將如脫韁野馬般地蜂擁四起？

然而，對中國政府而言，這或許也是正中下懷的好事，因為整個海外西藏流亡政府運動將會名正言順地變成人人得而誅之的恐怖分子，昔日的和平宗教色彩將因此一掃而空。有人可能會擔憂那些恐怖活動帶來的破壞和犧牲，不過，沒有風險又怎能叫做賭局呢？更詭異的是流亡西藏運動一旦走上了暴力路線，本來隱匿的「外國勢力」也會變得非常尷尬，他們願不願意直接敵對中國，支持一個公開放棄非暴力主義的組織呢？可見中國政府鷹派對待達賴的拖延手法其實不是外間所以為的愚蠢盲目，反而是相當聰明的。最大的問題只是中國要付出多大的代價呢？大家是否都做好了長期武裝抗爭和剛性鎮壓的準備呢？所有平民百姓知不知道以後的日子可能要在惶恐中度過呢？因為除了「疆獨」，日後或許會多出一批前所未見的劫機犯。

就算中國政府預備好了硬性的手段，面對藏人普遍的忿恨不滿；它既不可能把他們統統都蒸發掉，也不可能成功地按照自己幾十年來的邏輯，將「極少數的藏獨分子」和「絕大多數的愛國藏胞」完全分隔。另一方面，即便流亡海外的西藏獨立運動真的完成了最不可能的夢想，爭得西藏獨立；他們也不得不面對西藏境內早已住上了許多漢人和回民的現實，難道你能強迫他們全部離開嗎？更不用提四川、甘肅、青海、內蒙古等地藏區多民族混合的局面了。所以，無論你抱持何種政治立場，你也不能不認真對待漢藏等民族間日後相處的問題。於是在徹底壓抑西藏文化主體性與藏獨這兩個各走極端的方向之間，我們至少就可以找到一個最起碼的共通點，最大的公約數了，那就是真正的民族和解。

像「藏青會」這樣的組織有何想法，我們姑且不論。但在中國政府這一方面，若是想西藏長治久安，若是想日後高枕無憂，它其實還有很大的活動空間。首先要破除的，就是那呆板單向的民族政策了。一直以來，中國官方實施的少數民族政策總是以那些少數民族為工作對象，渾然忘卻了真正多民族國家更需注重的是強勢民族本身的習性和視野。也就是說，一個完整的民族政策不能只是面向藏人，更包括了漢人自身的改造。關於這點，由於所需篇幅甚多，我們下回再談。

kipposhi

The second one is from G2 Bulletin.

Peter-John, where are those four pictures from? And what do they mean?

(-_-')

原帖由 kipposhi 於 2008-3-30 22:46 發表
Sources at British Spy Agency Confirm Tibetan Claims of Staged Violence

LONDON—Britain''s GCHQ, the government communications agency thatelectronically monitors half the world from space, has confir ...

would china do that (police dress as monks and create riot) in this time of the year ? why wouldn't they do that after olympic?
and would they do it in the public ( like holding monk's clothes in police uniform in a crowded street?)
At this time of the year i think they will do everything very carefully before the olympic..   since they have invested so much into olympic that they won't do stupid things just 5 months short of the event and destroy its carefully built image over the last 2 years or so..  (like citizens' politeness... etc. )

I haven't got time to read all the news and stuff..  that's just my 2 cents..

chunsh

原帖由 Traum 於 2008-3-30 08:56 發表
呢班出來抗議反中國既人絕大部份（甚至係全部？）都係漢人。點解我唔見藏民自發性咁企出來講佢地想要D乜？ （記注，係自發性出來講佢地想要D乜過隻，而唔係中共安排出來講野過D被買通左既藏人。）中共政府有無問過藏人佢地想要D乜？西 ...

I saw those "lama" and some other 藏民 running around to burn and hit something / someONE, so u called such actions 有骨氣??

wow, lik, I think even Bush is not that Anti-China as you do

peter236

原帖由 kipposhi 於 2008-3-30 22:46 發表
Sources at British Spy Agency Confirm Tibetan Claims of Staged Violence

LONDON—Britain''s GCHQ, the government communications agency thatelectronically monitors half the world from space, has confir ...

kipposhi, please do not deceive us here. First, you quoted from two qestionable anti-China websites like prisonplanet.com and epochtimes.com.
Then you used a seemingly related picture, that was not even used by those two websites, to prove the claims that those websites made are genuine.

My friend, remember one of Andy Lau's movie <天下无贼> which was partly shot in Tibet. That picture with all those PLA people was from the movie set of <天下无贼>. Please do not mislead people, they are only temporary actors in the movie. Now we all know how desperate you are in bashing China.

chunsh

原帖由 peter236 於 2008-3-31 12:33 發表

My friend, remember one of Andy Lau's movie <天下无贼> which was partly shot in Tibet. That picture with all those PLA people was from the movie set of <天下无贼>. Please do not mislead people, they are only temporary actors in the movie. Now we all know how desperate you are in bashing China.

...

wah, is it true?
if so, then kipposhi can bend the truth WAY better than Chinese communists government.

SAZABI

LOL.  Busted?

kipposhi

原帖由 peter236 於 2008-3-31 12:33 發表



kipposhi, please do not deceive us here. First, you quoted from two qestionable anti-China websites like prisonplanet.com and epochtimes.com.
Then you used a seemingly related picture, that was not ...

Let me clarify it one more time.  The first one is from prisonplant.com and it quoted epochtimes.com.  The SECOND one (the one with picture) is from G2 Bulletin.

I did not watch the movie you mentioned.  Are you sure that picture really from that movie?

What are your pictures from?  Did you make them up?

chunsh

anyways,  we all know Chinese government is dirty (oh well, which government is not dirty, by the way), but I dun think they are dumb that order the troops to pretend to be "lama" while they know that the reporters from other countries are trying their best to sneak in and take some hardcore pictures AND while they know all those peeping satellie from "cowboys" are all gathering in the sky to watch them

peter236

原帖由 kipposhi 於 2008-3-31 16:45 發表


Let me clarify it one more time.  The first one is from prisonplant.com and it quoted epochtimes.com.  The SECOND one (the one with picture) is from G2 Bulletin.

I did not watch the movie you menti ...

Those are pictures taken by the Chinese people who went to the rally at the Vancouver Central Library.

[ 本帖最後由 peter236 於 2008-3-31 18:33 編輯 ]