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華籲白宮保障美債投資者 外儲難尋替代品

本帖最後由 lo_pak 於 2011-4-19 14:05 編輯

(明報)2011年4月20日 星期三 05:06

【明報專訊】標普破天荒下調美國評級展望至負面,美國國債零風險神話瀕破滅,中國外匯儲備包含巨額美國國債,安全備受關注。中國昨呼籲美國政府採取政策措施,保障投資者利益。但在缺乏其他替代品下,多個持有大量美債的亞洲國家及地區,昨都無奈繼續力撐美債,淡化標普警告。

標準及普爾兩家評級機構1941年合併後,70年來一直都給予美國最高的AAA評級。標普周一下調美國主權信貸評級展望,雖衝擊環球股市,但美債走勢未有太大變化,10年國債孳息仍然接近4周低位。美國財長蓋特納昨派定心丸,堅稱美國沒有喪失AAA評級的風險,稱美國借貸成本反映國內外投資者對美債及美國經濟仍然有信心。

華專家:外儲美債比重10年降兩成

但標普下調美國評級展望,意味美債這種向被視為零風險的外匯儲備工具,未來兩年可能被降評級。美債價值下降,將令多國儲備大幅縮水。身為美國最大債主的中國,外交部發言人洪磊昨表示,注意到標普下調美國信貸評級展望,「美國國債是美國政府的信用反映,是美國國內和國際機構投資者的重要投資品種。我們希望美國政府切實採取負責任的政策措施,保障投資者的利益」。

據美國財政部最新數據,中國2月份連續4個月減持美債,但目前仍是美債最大持有國。中國外匯儲備研究中心主任李杰向路透社稱,標普今次下調展望,可能令中國敲響警號。他表示,美債可能貶值,將促使中國減持美債,「一般相信,美債目前佔中國外匯儲備七成,在未來10年內,中國可能會將美債比例下調至五成或更少」。

中國外儲龐大 多元化困難

中國評級機構大公去年11月已將美國主權評級由AA下調至A+,所持理由除了美國負債不斷膨脹外,亦因為美國推行第二輪量化寬鬆。美元資產貶值早已引起中國關注,提出要將外匯儲備多元化,但實行並不易。中國外匯儲備已超過3萬億美元,最近一期《經濟學人》稱,這筆錢足已買下今年88%全球油產,就算只花當中的1.87萬億美元,也足以買下美國所有農場。該刊稱,中國央行繼續買美債有點缺乏想像力,但中國的龐大外匯儲備意味著多元化有很大難度,因為中國只要稍有動作,都會推高相關商品的價格,對中國不利。

除了中國,亞洲多國亦持有大量美債,第二大債權國日本昨挺美債,財相野田佳彥說﹕「美國正從多途徑處理財政問題,我因此認為美國國債仍然是吸引的」。韓國財金官員亦作類似反應。路透社引述負責管理韓國外匯儲備的消息人士說﹕「我想(下調展望)是好事,這會促使美國努力改善其財政健康。」日韓外匯儲備分別為1.12萬億和2910億美元。

印官:歐洲日本國債更差

印度儲備銀行消息人士亦稱,該行無意考慮減持美債,因為沒有替代品。美債佔印度外匯儲備六成,歐元儲備則有三成。該名消息人士說﹕「標普威脅降評級後,美債反而上揚。市場似乎考慮買美國國債。」他反問﹕「有什麼替代品呢?歐洲和日本的國債更差。」
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"Veni, Vidi, Vici"
竹乃清,竹乃霸道

本帖最後由 peter236 於 2011-4-19 14:34 編輯

The Chinese needs to gradually allow the RMB to become a reserve currency, so that it will go up in value. Some experts predict the RMB will go up 200-300% in the future.

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回復 2# peter236

That's the trend, the low exchange rate for RMB has a great impact (in both good and bad ways) to the world economy.
"Veni, Vidi, Vici"
竹乃清,竹乃霸道

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The Chinese needs to gradually allow the RMB to become a reserve currency, so that it will go up in  ...
peter236 發表於 2011-4-19 14:14


I don't think that is the best interest of China for now. It could be in the future when China gradually completes its 經濟轉型 and it will take a while.

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it's a real bad news for Chinese if RMB goes up substantially in value.

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回復 5# daimo

Seems like you are still quite in-confident, are you?

What makes you confused? You are not confident about the quality of the Chinese product, or the mechanism of the inflexibility of China currency, or you are just doubting the consiparacy behind the USD?

I will say, keeping pace to gradually increase (70% of the annual growth minus the inflation rate) the value of RMB will adequately promote the best interest of China...
"Veni, Vidi, Vici"
竹乃清,竹乃霸道

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本帖最後由 lo_pak 於 2011-4-19 20:41 編輯

回復 4# rockypath

Remember not to squeeze every bit of juice from the prey, they are not as strong as you think they are...

Living in Canada let me learnt what's the meaning of "餓你唔死, 養你唔肥..."
"Veni, Vidi, Vici"
竹乃清,竹乃霸道

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回復  rockypath

Remember not to squeeze every bit of juice from the prey, they are not as strong a ...
lo_pak 發表於 2011-4-19 20:32


Sorry, I do not quite understand what you are trying to say. Do you mind to explain the reasons why allowing RMB to rapidly grow in value is for the interest of China?

China is called the “world factory” for the given fact that it is built based on labour-intensive industries which can no longer survive in developed countries. This model has provided China a miraculous economic growth over the past 30 years. However, this is not a sustainable model to continue to carry on into the future.

I know a few financial controllers or CFO of the subsidiaries of multi-national corporations in China. They shared their concerns of the rapid increase of operational cost, especially the growth of labour cost. Therefore, it could be better off to establish the manufacturing base in other countries such as Vietnam which demands a much lower cost. Vietnam has been trying to replicate the China model to attract foreign investments and it is not hesitating to offer even more attractive policies to allure foreign companies to move their manufacturing bases to Vietnam. I do not see how a stronger RMB will help China in term of competitive strength against its rivals.

That is the reason why China has been putting in great effort trying to transform its economic model since it understands clearly that it must either transform or just dies dry gradually.

Another example of negative impact is to domestic businesses which depending on foreign export contracts. I know a few of Hong Kong business people who have factories in China and exporting their products to foreign countries and US market is their ultimate client. They have been complaining the stronger RMB is killing their future. Manufacturing businesses traditionally earn a low profit margin and it makes money by volume. Their contracts normally signed in USD and lock in multiple years and fixed price with a small room for adjustment mainly based on inflation. They normally have to bear very strict payment term and 3 – 4 months is considered standard. Any increase in exchange rate will have a deep bite into their profit. A very long payment term makes them even more vulnerable to any fluctuation of exchange rate.     

That is the reason 溫總理 has said an increase of 20% will force many domestic companies out of businesses.

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Grandfather is caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the valuation of the RMB.

On one hand, export and manufacturing businesses (esp those in SE China) risks losing their shirts each time the RMB's value goes up. Quotations are often billed in USD, and the factories have to honour their quoted prices for a period of time. Each time the RMB goes up in value, it eats into their already razor thin profit margins. As the RMB continue to face upward pressure, these factories may end up losing money on their contracts. Increasingly, factories are moving towards shorter quotation periods, or they try to quote their prices in RMB instead of USD to prevent losses due to the exchange rate. Still, as RMB goes up, businesses may choose to source their products from elsewhere instead of purchasing from China. For certain low-skilled manufactured goods, Chinese-made products are no longer enjoying the price advantage they once had. Corporations are buying from other countries in S.America, and SE Asia instead.

On the other hand, the RMB continues to face upward pressure because it really is undervalued. Countries are slapping tariffs on ultra-low priced Chinese goods and taking matters to WTO to sue the Chinese government for value manipulation. Instead of having tariffs levied on Chinese-made products, it is at least somewhat smarter for China to have the RMB appreciate instead. That way, at least the Chinese citizens can capitalize on the stronger RMB's purchasing power instead of having that money channeled to other countries as tariffs and levies. But then when the RMB appreciates, things go back to paragraphy #1 and end up hurting the export sector.

I certainly do not envy Grandfather's financial planners and policy makers.

-Lik

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本帖最後由 peter236 於 2011-4-20 00:12 編輯
Grandfather is caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the valuation of the RMB.

On ...
Lik 發表於 2011-4-19 22:21

hahaha, that is why you don't understand finances. If the RMB goes up in value, what will happen? Chances are most currencies in other developing countries will also go up big.

You need to understand that if China, the big guy on the block, starts dumping $US or at least stop buying as much $US, all the other smaller guys will panic and follow suit.
As a result the $US will crumble much quicker against most currencies.

Will Chinese factories lose their competitiveness? Not when most other developing countries' currencies also go up at the same time.

But the Chinese products are moving up the value chain rapidly, so that they no longer compete based on low prices.
In addition, the Chinese are rapidly developing their own local consumption market so that they no longer depend as much on exports.

As there are no other viable alternative for $US assets (Japan bond or Euro bond are even worse investments) in the short term, what China will continue doing is to use their $US to secure their supply of oil and natural resources.

The Chinese strategy of gradually allowing the RMB to go up and becoming a reserve currency is just brilliant.

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