[國際新聞] North Korean leader’s death keeps world on edge Korean, nuclear, leader, matter, death

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North Korean leader’s death keeps world on edge

Uncertainty surrounds succession, nuclear program


Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/health/North+Korean+leader+death+keeps+world+edge/5880146/story.html#ixzz1gzYyxdcl

The anticipated death of North Korea’s “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-il has been a matter of risk-assessment for many governments for at least three years.
And those risks are not minor.
The announcement by North Korean state media that Kim died on Saturday of “overwork” sets off all the anxieties about one of the world’s most eccentric and isolated regimes, with one of the globe’s largest standing armies and some nuclear weapons — although crude ones with no real ability to deliver them to a target.
Indeed, North Korea’s conventional forces, artillery and missiles are probably far more able to turn the successful and democratic state of South Korea into a “sea of fire,” as the North often threatens, than are its lumbering atomic bombs.
But the conclusion in the United States and Asia is that as eccentric as is the North Korean regime, the chances of it going seriously rogue (while not to be ignored) are not imminent.
For about a year, Kim has been trying to secure the succession for his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, but it is not clear if he has been able to manage this transition.
There is likely to be a tussle for power which will be largely hidden from the outside world.
There appears to be as much resistance to the establishment of a communist monarchy with this transition as there was with Kim Jong-il’s assumption of power after the death of his father and founder of North Korea after the Second World War, Kim Il-sung, in 1994.
It was several years later that Kim Jong-il took over the key levers of power as head of the military commission and leader of the Workers’ Party.

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And it is an insight into the insecurity of even this most hierarchical of Asian regimes that, 17 years after his death, the founder of the dynasty Kim Il-sung remains “President for Life”.

Even as an understudy to his dead father, Kim Jong-il played a hard game.

His training for leadership of this demanding country including masterminding the 1983 bombing in Burma of 17 visiting South Korean officials, and the 1987 bombing of a South Korean airliner that killed 115 people.

Kim has also overseen the persistent development of nuclear weapons despite international sanctions and an economy that collapsed under the weight of sheer stupidity and criminal nationalism.

At least two million people and probably a good many more have died because of the nonsensical policy of communist self-sufficiency. This only produced a dysfunctional economy.

Meanwhile, Kim and his court have lived in extraordinary extravagancy unknown even to the most wealthy of free-market plutocrats.

Much of what we know about Kim Jong-il and his regime comes from people like his imported chefs and other court servants who have been enrolled to cater to the whims of the leader and his family.

And it is a complex family of senior males and a host of subsidiary but highly influential females — either primary of secondary wives or concubines, all set on ensuring the security of their offspring.

The emergence of Kim’s third son, Kim Jong-un, as the designated successor is at the core of this palace infighting, which can perhaps be best understood by watching the television dramatization of 16th Century British history, The Tudors.

The military remains the key institution in North Korea, and an essential part of Kim Jong-il’s campaign to ensure the succession of Kim Jong-un has been to establish the boy’s military credentials.

Apparent attempts to establish Kim Jong-un’s ruthlessness have been the sinking of a South Korean warship and the artillery attack on a South Korean island.

Kim Jong-il had already made it clear he was bypassing his elder sons for the succession.

His eldest son, Kim Jong-nam, fell out of favour when he and his family were caught entering Japan in 2001 on false passports, saying they were on their way to Tokyo’s Disneyland.

Kim Jong-il has two other sons, but they also don’t appear to have passed muster.

The “Dear Leader” has seen the weakness of the claim to leadership of Kim Jong-un, despite the military adventures committed in his name.

To try to overcome this, Kim Jong-il has appointed his brother-in-law, Chang Song-taek, as his son’s guardian and regent.

But Chang is a man with his own ambitions. One of the great unknowns now is whether Chang will keep his word, or strike out on his own path for power.

The succession has been a matter of intense interest since 2008, when Kim Jong-il was reported to have suffered a stroke at a time of high international focus on North Korea and its nuclear weapons program.

North Korea withdrew from all efforts to encourage it to abandon its nuclear weapons in return for peace treaties an economic aid.

That stalemate remains.

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North Korean leader Kim Jong-il (C) visits a military unit at an undisclosed location in North Korea in this undated file photo, released by KCNA on August 11, 2008. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il died on December 17, 2011 on a train trip, a tearful state television announcer, dressed in black, reported on December 19, 2011


An image grab from state-run Korean Central Television (KCTV) broadcast on South Korean television taken on September 30, 2010 shows whom experts believe is Kim Jong-Un, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il's youngest son and likely heir, attending the Conference of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang.



FEBRUARY 16 - A man points at a computer screen in Seoul on February 16, 2011 showing a man believed to be North Korean leader's second son, Kim Jong-Chol, as he enters a concert for British guitarist Eric Clapton in Singapore on A man points at a computer screen in Seoul on February 16, 2011 showing a man believed to be North Korean leader's second son, Kim Jong-Chol, as he enters a concert for British guitarist Eric Clapton in Singapore on February 14, 2011. Jong-Chol, the son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il, known to be a die-hard fan of Clapton, attended the concert in Singapore this week, a South Korean intelligence official told AFP on February 16. TV video footage showed a man resembling Jong-Chol entering the stadium, accompanied by some 20 people including bodyguards and women carrying bouquets.



Kim Il-sung (L), founder of North Korea, chats with his son Kim Jong-il at a mass rally to celebrate the foundation of the communist country in Pyongyang in this September 1983 photograph. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il died on December 17, 2011, state television reported on December 19, 2011. An announcer said he died of physical and mental over-work.



North Korean leader Kim Jong- il (R) escorts South Korean President Kim Dae- jung as they walk through Baekhwawon State Guest House in Pyongyang in this June 13, 2000 file photo.